2020: The Year of the Woman Voter

  The 1992 election was called the “Year of the Woman” because the number of female senators tripled (from two all the way to six) and two dozen women were elected to their first term in the House, the largest number in congressional history. By contrast, this year’s election is being driven by the increasingly overwhelming determination of a significant number of women from every demographic to vote Democratic at every level of the ballot regardless of the gender of the... Read more
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Trump Jumps the Shark

Given Donald Trump’s background as a reality show host, the TV-based idiom, “jumping the shark,” provides the most apt and accurate description of the impact his disastrous musing that injecting disinfectants might be a cure for Covid-19 has had on his presidency.The term "jumping the shark" originally came from the long-running television show, “Happy Days,” that captured the zeitgeist of middle class America in the 1950's. One of the show’s characters, Arthur “Fonzie” Fonzarelli, a rebellious but good natured black leather jacket-wearing motorcycle rider, appeared occasionally when the... Read more
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Biden Has Women To Thank For His Primary Victories

  A version of this blog was published on the Brookings website on March 17, 2020. Women have become the most dominant demographic in determining the outcome of this year’s Democratic presidential nomination and will be equally important in November’s general election. Women have participated more than men in all the Democratic primaries so far. Their overwhelming preference for former Vice President Joe Biden has effectively ended the race four months earlier than was expected just two weeks ago. When Biden is nominated at the Democratic convention in July and chooses,... Read more
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Women's Growing Political Power Will Determine Who Wins in 2020

  A version of this blog was published on the Brookings website on February 19, 2020. The most profound change in American politics today and in the years to come will result from a massive movement of women into the Democratic Party. As this realignment takes place Hillary Clinton may well go down in history as this century’s equivalent of Al Smith. Al Smith was the Democratic nominee for president in 1928 and the first Roman Catholic ever nominated by a major political party. Although he lost the election, his campaign presaged the movement of... Read more
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Racism Won’t Work for Trump Thanks to Millennials

A version of this blog was published by the Los Angeles Times on August 20, 2019. Racism is increasingly unacceptable to most Americans. This is true among conservatives as well as liberals, college and non-college educated adults alike. But what’s behind the United States becoming a place where racist expression is more and more unpopular are the beliefs and behaviors of the generation born between 1982 and 2003, the Millennials.USC political scientists, Morris Levy and Dennis Chong, examined 40 years of data gathered by NORC at the University of Chicago in its... Read more
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When Is a Blue Wave, not a Blue Wave? When it’s a Realignment

Final results from the 2018 midterm elections make it clear that Donald Trump’s presidency has accelerated a political dynamic likely to defeat him and his party in 2020. Five years ago, our book, Millennial Majority, identified a new majority coalition in American politics led by Millennials, minorities and women. This year’s midterm elections saw this coalition solidify its support of Democrats, particularly in U.S. House races, that caused many to conclude a “Blue Wave” had at least temporarily overwhelmed Republicans. But in fact, the changes... Read more
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Whatever Happened To Civility In America?

The "us vs. them" tone of American politics, most visibly emanating from the White House, but infecting all the country’s political rhetoric, has now spread to daily life. The polarization leads some to question the country’s ability to keep its democratic traditions and hold together as one nation. A recent poll conducted with bipartisan sponsorship by the Biden and Bush Institutes found that 50% of Americans believe that the United States is in “Real danger of becoming a nondemocratic authoritarian country and 80% of Americans... Read more
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America: Meet the Plurals

The ability of Parkland, Florida students to change their state’s gun laws in just three weeks after the tragic shooting at Marjory Stoneham Douglas, something no other group had been able to accomplish in the last twenty years, surprised a lot of people. But, for those who have been reading our books about Millennials and how they fit into a larger cycle of generational archetypes, it shouldn’t have.Major change in America’s attitudes and beliefs occur about every forty years—the span of two generations. Millennials,... Read more
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Hope Springs Eternal In Baseball And Politics

This is a special time for baseball fans. Major league baseball is ready to begin another season, with spring training officially opening this week. With some exceptions, fans in most cities can at least dream of watching their team play in the postseason and maybe even compete for the World Series championship. For them, hope springs eternal. Ditto for the Democratic Party. 2018 appears to be a “wave year,” with an opportunity to win control of the House of Representatives, maybe even the Senate, and then use those majorities to place a major constitutional check... Read more
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The Future And Young Voters?

Countless articles have been written since the November election about the electorate and the voting habits---present and future---of various demographic segments. For example, in a recent Slate.com article a Harvard prof suggested that Millennials (a cohort of some 95 million young Americans) were going to become more conservative and that the Democrats ought to beware. Community Advocates asked two of the leading mavens on Millennials, Morley Winograd and Michael Hais, to offer their analysis. It is thoughtful and data rich.---David A. Lehrer"The man who is... Read more
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